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For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago. And officials' median longer-run estimate was for a target range of 2.5% to 2.75%, also a quarter of a percentage point higher than in December.
The Bank will lower the base interest rate to 3% by the end of 2025, according to analysis by research firm Capital Economics. This is more optimistic than projections from Berenberg Bank that said rates would fall to 4% by the end of next year.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
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